Why the Stock Market Predicts Biden’s 2024 Reelection

The U.S. stock market is a strong predictor of the incumbent party’s success in presidential elections. Based on historical correlations and the Dow Jones’ year-to-date price-only gain of 5.6%, President Joe Biden’s chances of winning re-election are currently estimated at 58.8%

1. Previous Presidential Election Results:
   • Historical U.S. presidential elections have shaped the nation’s history since 1789. If you’re curious about the results of past elections, you can explore the 270toWin website, which provides maps, results, and synopses for each election.
   • The Federal Election Commission (FEC) also publishes official reports on past federal elections, including primary, runoff, and general election results from 1982 to 2020.
   • For a comprehensive list of election results, including candidates, parties, and electoral/popular votes, Infoplease offers data from 1789 to 2020.
2. 2024 Presidential Candidates:
   • In the 2024 race, we have notable contenders:
     • Joe Biden (Incumbent President, Democrat)
     • Donald Trump (Former President, Republican)
     • Marianne Williamson (Author, Democratic candidate).
   • Trump was the first candidate to declare his intent to run for the GOP nomination in 2024. He faces legal challenges related to a payoff to a porn star and alleged mishandling of classified documents.
   • Keep an eye out for potential running mates; Trump hasn’t named his VP yet.
3. Jacksonville’s Role in Presidential Elections:
   • Duval County, where Jacksonville is located, has historically played a pivotal role in determining the presidency.
   • Even when candidates overlooked Duval, its votes influenced outcomes. In 2020, Duval was called the “largest swing county in the largest swing state” by CNN.
   • Biden’s victory in Duval County marked the first time a Democratic candidate won there since 1976.
   • Jacksonville’s significance lies in its ability to sway Florida, a crucial state for any candidate. Trump’s chances of winning the presidency significantly increase if he secures Florida.

The stock market has long been viewed as a barometer of economic health and investor sentiment. But did you know that it also has a track record of predicting presidential election outcomes? In this article, we delve into the fascinating relationship between stock market performance and electoral success, specifically focusing on President Joe Biden’s chances of winning re-election in 2024.

The Historical Correlation

Historically, the stock market’s performance leading up to an election has been closely tied to the incumbent party’s fate. Here are some key points to consider:

1. The Incumbent Advantage: Incumbent presidents seeking re-election benefit from a strong economy and a rising stock market. When stocks perform well, voters tend to feel more optimistic about their financial prospects, which can translate into support for the sitting president.
2. The Dow Jones Indicator: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), a widely followed stock market index, has been particularly telling. Researchers have found that if the DJIA shows a positive year-to-date price-only gain in the months leading up to the election, the incumbent party tends to win. Conversely, a negative performance often signals a change in leadership.

Biden’s Chances

Let’s crunch the numbers for 2024:

• Current DJIA Performance: As of now, the DJIA has recorded a year-to-date price-only gain of 5.6%. This positive trend favors President Biden.
• Historical Odds: Based on historical correlations, President Biden’s chances of winning re-election stand at approximately 58.8%. While not a guarantee, this percentage suggests that the stock market is leaning in his favor.

Conclusion

While the stock market isn’t infallible, it provides valuable insights into the collective sentiment of investors and voters alike. As we approach the 2024 election, keep an eye on those stock tickers—they might just be signaling the winner!